Diego Elias v Simon Rösner (Tue 11 Jun 2019)
Match won by Diego Elias. Result: 5-11,11-8,11-9.
Starting level for
Diego Elias:
54,117, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Simon Rösner:
54,506, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Simon Rösner to win as he is currently playing
1% better than Diego Elias.
Diego Elias won 67% of the games and 49% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This
points result would be expected if he was worse by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Elias played
8% better than Simon Rösner in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Diego Elias actually played at a level of
56,498 and Simon Rösner at a level of
52,209. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.4% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 3.3% and 3.3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Elias changes to +3.3% and Simon Rösner changes to -2.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Elias becomes +1.1% and for Simon Rösner becomes -1.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Tour Finals' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Elias: 89%, Simon Rösner: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Elias: 85%, Simon Rösner: 90%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Diego Elias:
54,735, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Simon Rösner:
54,055, level confidence: 90%.