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Owain Taylor v Nick Mulvey (Tue 11 Jun 2019)

Match won by Owain Taylor. Result: 7-11,11-4,11-9,11-2.

Starting level for Owain Taylor: 23,643, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nick Mulvey: 13,858, level confidence: 64%.
Owain Taylor to win as he is currently playing 71% better than Nick Mulvey.

Owain Taylor won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 54% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Owain Taylor played 35% better than Nick Mulvey in this match.

As Owain Taylor has played below his allowed range at 19,369, his level reduction is 3.9% before damping. On the assumption that Owain Taylor would normally have been playing at level 21,813 (based on typical behaviour), Nick Mulvey played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3% and 6.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Owain Taylor changes to -2.4% and Nick Mulvey changes to +6.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Owain Taylor becomes -1% and for Nick Mulvey becomes +2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Prague Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Owain Taylor: 88%, Nick Mulvey: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Owain Taylor: 78%, Nick Mulvey: 71%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Owain Taylor: 23,408, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Nick Mulvey: 14,151, level confidence: 71%.