Raneem El Welily v Tesni Murphy (Mon 10 Jun 2019)
Match won by Raneem El Welily. Result: 11-4,11-6.
Starting level for
Raneem El Welily:
13,625, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for
Tesni Murphy:
10,057, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Raneem El Welily to win as she is currently playing
35% better than Tesni Murphy.
Raneem El Welily won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raneem El Welily played
120% better than Tesni Murphy in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Raneem El Welily actually played at a level of
17,363 and Tesni Murphy at a level of
7,892. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raneem El Welily changes to +17% and Tesni Murphy changes to -13%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raneem El Welily becomes +4.4% and for Tesni Murphy becomes -4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Tour Finals' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raneem El Welily: 78%, Tesni Murphy: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raneem El Welily: 61%, Tesni Murphy: 68%.
A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Raneem El Welily:
13,999, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Tesni Murphy:
9,780, level confidence: 68%.