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Evan Williams v Ryunosuke Tsukue (Sat 08 Jun 2019)

Match won by Evan Williams. Result: 12-10,12-10,5-11,8-11,11-6.

Starting level for Evan Williams: 25,769, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Ryunosuke Tsukue: 27,901, level confidence: 67%.
Ryunosuke Tsukue to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Evan Williams.

Evan Williams won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Evan Williams played 8% better than Ryunosuke Tsukue in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Evan Williams actually played at a level of 27,801 and Ryunosuke Tsukue at a level of 25,862. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Evan Williams changes to +7.6% and Ryunosuke Tsukue changes to -6.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Evan Williams becomes +2.1% and for Ryunosuke Tsukue becomes -2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA New Zealand International Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Evan Williams: 78%, Ryunosuke Tsukue: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Evan Williams: 73%, Ryunosuke Tsukue: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Evan Williams: 26,332, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Ryunosuke Tsukue: 27,413, level confidence: 76%.