Edmon Lopez Moller v Hugo Varela (Thu 30 May 2019)
Match won by Edmon Lopez Moller. Result: 14-16,11-5,13-11,11-5.
Starting level for
Edmon Lopez Moller:
34,538, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for
Hugo Varela:
19,905, level confidence: 53%.
Edmon Lopez Moller to win as he is currently playing
74% better than Hugo Varela.
Edmon Lopez Moller won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Edmon Lopez Moller played
27% better than Hugo Varela in this match.
As Edmon Lopez Moller has played below his allowed range at 27,182, his level reduction is 7.1% before damping. On the assumption that Edmon Lopez Moller would normally have been playing at level 31,715 (based on typical behaviour), Hugo Varela played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.4% and 8.8% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller changes to -4.4% and Hugo Varela changes to +8.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller becomes -1.5% and for Hugo Varela becomes +2.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tel Aviv Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Edmon Lopez Moller: 81%, Hugo Varela: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Edmon Lopez Moller: 69%, Hugo Varela: 63%.
Final level for Edmon Lopez Moller:
34,044, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Hugo Varela:
20,406, level confidence: 63%.