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Benjamin Aubert v Baptiste Masotti (Thu 30 May 2019)

Match won by Benjamin Aubert. Result: 11-4,8-11,11-9,11-4.

Starting level for Benjamin Aubert: 28,707, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Baptiste Masotti: 36,957, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Baptiste Masotti to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Benjamin Aubert.

Benjamin Aubert won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 46% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Benjamin Aubert played 32% better than Baptiste Masotti in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Benjamin Aubert actually played at a level of 37,432 and Baptiste Masotti at a level of 28,342. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Benjamin Aubert changes to +25% and Baptiste Masotti changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Benjamin Aubert becomes +5.3% and for Baptiste Masotti becomes -5.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Montpellier Metropole Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Benjamin Aubert: 86%, Baptiste Masotti: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Benjamin Aubert: 66%, Baptiste Masotti: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Benjamin Aubert: 30,166, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Baptiste Masotti: 35,240, level confidence: 65%.