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Arturo Salazar v Victor Crouin (Thu 30 May 2019)

Match won by Arturo Salazar. Result: 11-5,11-7,11-8.

Starting level for Arturo Salazar: 37,675, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Victor Crouin: 32,026, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Arturo Salazar to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Victor Crouin.

Arturo Salazar won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Arturo Salazar played 65% better than Victor Crouin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Arturo Salazar actually played at a level of 44,619 and Victor Crouin at a level of 27,042. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Arturo Salazar changes to +17% and Victor Crouin changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Arturo Salazar becomes +3.7% and for Victor Crouin becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Internacional Sporta Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Arturo Salazar: 83%, Victor Crouin: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Arturo Salazar: 70%, Victor Crouin: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Arturo Salazar: 38,891, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Victor Crouin: 31,212, level confidence: 76%.