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Alfredo Avila v Greg Lobban (Thu 30 May 2019)

Match won by Alfredo Avila. Result: 3-11,13-11,11-9,11-6.

Starting level for Alfredo Avila: 29,930, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Greg Lobban: 39,805, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Alfredo Avila.

Alfredo Avila won 75% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alfredo Avila played 18% better than Greg Lobban in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alfredo Avila actually played at a level of 37,437 and Greg Lobban at a level of 31,823. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 21% and 21% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila changes to +21% and Greg Lobban changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila becomes +4.6% and for Greg Lobban becomes -4.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Internacional Sporta Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alfredo Avila: 87%, Greg Lobban: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alfredo Avila: 70%, Greg Lobban: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alfredo Avila: 31,297, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Greg Lobban: 38,249, level confidence: 70%.