Mohamed Elshorbagy v Ali Farag (Sun 26 May 2019)
Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 11-9,5-11,11-5,11-9.
Starting level for
Mohamed Elshorbagy:
68,196, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Ali Farag:
77,437, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing
14% better than Mohamed Elshorbagy.
Mohamed Elshorbagy won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played
21% better than Ali Farag in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Elshorbagy actually played at a level of
79,815 and Ali Farag at a level of
66,164. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to +16% and Ali Farag changes to -13%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes +3.2% and for Ali Farag becomes -2.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 84%, Ali Farag: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 72%, Ali Farag: 78%.
A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy:
70,298, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Ali Farag:
75,973, level confidence: 78%.