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Nour El Sherbini v Mayar Hany (Wed 22 May 2019)

Match won by Nour El Sherbini. Result: 11-5,11-4,11-7.

Starting level for Nour El Sherbini: 13,751, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Mayar Hany: 7,511, level confidence: 69%.
Nour El Sherbini to win as she is currently playing 83% better than Mayar Hany.

Nour El Sherbini won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nour El Sherbini played 106% better than Mayar Hany in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nour El Sherbini actually played at a level of 14,595 and Mayar Hany at a level of 7,077. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.1% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.5% and 4.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nour El Sherbini changes to +4.5% and Mayar Hany changes to -3.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nour El Sherbini becomes +1.7% and for Mayar Hany becomes -1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nour El Sherbini: 77%, Mayar Hany: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nour El Sherbini: 73%, Mayar Hany: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nour El Sherbini: 13,703, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Mayar Hany: 7,485, level confidence: 78%.