Tesni Murphy v Julianne Courtice (Wed 22 May 2019)
Match won by Tesni Murphy. Result: 11-6,7-11,7-11,11-7,12-10.
Starting level for
Tesni Murphy:
10,392, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for
Julianne Courtice:
9,253, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Tesni Murphy to win as she is currently playing
12% better than Julianne Courtice.
Tesni Murphy won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tesni Murphy played
9% better than Julianne Courtice in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tesni Murphy actually played at a level of
10,246 and Julianne Courtice at a level of
9,385. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.4% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy changes to -1.3% and Julianne Courtice changes to +0.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy becomes -0.7% and for Julianne Courtice becomes +0.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tesni Murphy: 76%, Julianne Courtice: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tesni Murphy: 75%, Julianne Courtice: 90%.
A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tesni Murphy:
10,234, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Julianne Courtice:
9,298, level confidence: 90%.