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Simon Rösner v Tom Richards (Wed 22 May 2019)

Match won by Simon Rösner. Result: 11-3,12-10,11-6.

Starting level for Simon Rösner: 54,529, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tom Richards: 38,756, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Simon Rösner to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Tom Richards.

Simon Rösner won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 79% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Rösner played 79% better than Tom Richards in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Simon Rösner actually played at a level of 61,496 and Tom Richards at a level of 34,365. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.7% and 10.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Rösner changes to +10.7% and Tom Richards changes to -10.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Rösner becomes +2.4% and for Tom Richards becomes -2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Rösner: 87%, Tom Richards: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Rösner: 78%, Tom Richards: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Simon Rösner: 55,575, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Tom Richards: 38,065, level confidence: 79%.