Cameron Seth v Sam Fenwick (Wed 15 May 2019)
Match won by Cameron Seth. Result: 6-11,15-13,11-4,7-11,11-6.
Starting level for
Cameron Seth:
17,856, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Sam Fenwick:
13,487, level confidence: 53%.
Cameron Seth to win as he is currently playing
32% better than Sam Fenwick.
Cameron Seth won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron Seth played
10% better than Sam Fenwick in this match.
As Cameron Seth has played below his allowed range at 15,884, his level reduction is 6.8% before damping. On the assumption that Cameron Seth would normally have been playing at level 17,404 (based on typical behaviour), Sam Fenwick played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.2%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.9% and 7.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron Seth changes to -4.2% and Sam Fenwick changes to +7.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron Seth becomes -1.6% and for Sam Fenwick becomes +2.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cityview Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron Seth: 86%, Sam Fenwick: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron Seth: 78%, Sam Fenwick: 67%.
Final level for Cameron Seth:
17,575, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Sam Fenwick:
13,800, level confidence: 67%.