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Marwan Elshorbagy v Baptiste Masotti (Tue 14 May 2019)

Match won by Marwan Elshorbagy. Result: 11-13,11-7,7-11,11-4,11-6.

Starting level for Marwan Elshorbagy: 51,481, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Baptiste Masotti: 35,908, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Marwan Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 43% better than Baptiste Masotti.

Marwan Elshorbagy won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marwan Elshorbagy played 14% better than Baptiste Masotti in this match.

As Marwan Elshorbagy has played below his allowed range at 44,020, his level reduction is 7.9% before damping. On the assumption that Marwan Elshorbagy would normally have been playing at level 49,453 (based on typical behaviour), Baptiste Masotti played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.6% and 8.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marwan Elshorbagy changes to -6.6% and Baptiste Masotti changes to +8.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marwan Elshorbagy becomes -1.7% and for Baptiste Masotti becomes +2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Wimbledon Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marwan Elshorbagy: 83%, Baptiste Masotti: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marwan Elshorbagy: 74%, Baptiste Masotti: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Marwan Elshorbagy: 50,618, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Baptiste Masotti: 36,782, level confidence: 76%.