Sam Fenwick v Darosham Khan (Tue 14 May 2019)
Match won by Sam Fenwick. Result: 11-6,7-11,11-4,11-5.
Starting level for
Sam Fenwick:
13,397, level confidence: 30%.
Starting level for
Darosham Khan:
10,280, level confidence: 39%.
Sam Fenwick to win as he is currently playing
30% better than Darosham Khan.
Sam Fenwick won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 54% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sam Fenwick played
35% better than Darosham Khan in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sam Fenwick actually played at a level of
13,611 and Darosham Khan at a level of
10,118. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.6% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.4% and 1.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sam Fenwick changes to +1.4% and Darosham Khan changes to -1.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sam Fenwick becomes +0.7% and for Darosham Khan becomes -0.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cityview Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sam Fenwick: 54%, Darosham Khan: 63%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sam Fenwick: 54%, Darosham Khan: 62%.
Final level for Sam Fenwick:
13,485, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Darosham Khan:
10,227, level confidence: 62%.