Baptiste Masotti v Mathieu Castagnet (Mon 13 May 2019)
Match won by Baptiste Masotti. Result: 11-4,8-11,11-5,7-11,11-7.
Starting level for
Baptiste Masotti:
34,314, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mathieu Castagnet:
42,193, level confidence: 66%.
Mathieu Castagnet to win as he is currently playing
23% better than Baptiste Masotti.
Baptiste Masotti won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Baptiste Masotti played
14% better than Mathieu Castagnet in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Baptiste Masotti actually played at a level of
40,640 and Mathieu Castagnet at a level of
35,625. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti changes to +15% and Mathieu Castagnet changes to -16%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti becomes +3.4% and for Mathieu Castagnet becomes -3.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Wimbledon Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Baptiste Masotti: 85%, Mathieu Castagnet: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Baptiste Masotti: 72%, Mathieu Castagnet: 69%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Baptiste Masotti:
35,452, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Mathieu Castagnet:
40,840, level confidence: 69%.