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Joelle King v Tesni Murphy (Mon 13 May 2019)

Match won by Joelle King. Result: 11-8,11-2,11-4.

Starting level for Joelle King: 11,340, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tesni Murphy: 10,842, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Joelle King to win as she is currently playing 5% better than Tesni Murphy.

Joelle King won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joelle King played 136% better than Tesni Murphy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joelle King actually played at a level of 17,024 and Tesni Murphy at a level of 7,222. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 50% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joelle King changes to +49% and Tesni Murphy changes to -41%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joelle King becomes +10.9% and for Tesni Murphy becomes -9.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Manchester Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Joelle King is limited to +4.7% and Tesni Murphy is limited to -4.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joelle King: 85%, Tesni Murphy: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joelle King: 56%, Tesni Murphy: 60%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joelle King: 11,837, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Tesni Murphy: 10,429, level confidence: 60%.