Tesni Murphy v Sarah-Jane Perry (Sat 11 May 2019)
Match won by Tesni Murphy. Result: 7-11,11-9,11-9,1-11,13-11.
Starting level for
Tesni Murphy:
10,734, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Sarah-Jane Perry:
9,724, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Tesni Murphy to win as she is currently playing
10% better than Sarah-Jane Perry.
Tesni Murphy won 60% of the games and 46% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if she was worse by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tesni Murphy played
4% better than Sarah-Jane Perry in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tesni Murphy actually played at a level of
10,398 and Sarah-Jane Perry at a level of
10,038. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.2% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy changes to -3.1% and Sarah-Jane Perry changes to +2.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy becomes -1.5% and for Sarah-Jane Perry becomes +1.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Manchester Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tesni Murphy: 85%, Sarah-Jane Perry: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tesni Murphy: 82%, Sarah-Jane Perry: 89%.
A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tesni Murphy:
10,531, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Sarah-Jane Perry:
9,840, level confidence: 89%.