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Tesni Murphy v Milou Van Der Heijden (Fri 10 May 2019)

Match won by Tesni Murphy. Result: 11-7,11-9,11-3.

Starting level for Tesni Murphy: 10,588, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Milou Van Der Heijden: 7,812, level confidence: 56%.
Tesni Murphy to win as she is currently playing 36% better than Milou Van Der Heijden.

Tesni Murphy won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tesni Murphy played 74% better than Milou Van Der Heijden in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tesni Murphy actually played at a level of 11,986 and Milou Van Der Heijden at a level of 6,901. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy changes to +9.5% and Milou Van Der Heijden changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy becomes +3% and for Milou Van Der Heijden becomes -3.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Manchester Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tesni Murphy: 82%, Milou Van Der Heijden: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tesni Murphy: 72%, Milou Van Der Heijden: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tesni Murphy: 10,734, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Milou Van Der Heijden: 7,627, level confidence: 66%.