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Owain Taylor v Nick Wall (Tue 07 May 2019)

Match won by Owain Taylor. Result: 11-9,11-2,6-11,11-4.

Starting level for Owain Taylor: 22,034, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nick Wall: 23,349, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Nick Wall to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Owain Taylor.

Owain Taylor won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Owain Taylor played 33% better than Nick Wall in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Owain Taylor actually played at a level of 26,183 and Nick Wall at a level of 19,649. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Owain Taylor changes to +17% and Nick Wall changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Owain Taylor becomes +4.1% and for Nick Wall becomes -4.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Welsh Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Owain Taylor: 91%, Nick Wall: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Owain Taylor: 77%, Nick Wall: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Owain Taylor: 22,879, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Nick Wall: 22,505, level confidence: 74%.