Andrew Bremner v Matthew Williams (Sat 04 May 2019)
Match won by Matthew Williams. Result: 10-12,11-6,10-12,6-11.
Starting level for
Andrew Bremner:
3,439, level confidence: 41%.
Starting level for
Matthew Williams:
5,489, level confidence: 50%.
Matthew Williams to win as he is currently playing
60% better than Andrew Bremner.
Matthew Williams won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Williams played
20% better than Andrew Bremner in this match.
As Matthew Williams has played below his allowed range at 4,472, his level reduction is 8.1% before damping. On the assumption that Matthew Williams would normally have been playing at level 5,151 (based on typical behaviour), Andrew Bremner played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.4% and 9.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Williams changes to -5.1% and Andrew Bremner changes to +9.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Williams becomes -2.3% and for Andrew Bremner becomes +3.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Home Internationals 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Williams: 70%, Andrew Bremner: 64%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Williams: 61%, Andrew Bremner: 55%.
Final level for Andrew Bremner:
3,572, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Matthew Williams:
5,363, level confidence: 61%.