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Saurav Ghosal v Ryunosuke Tsukue (Thu 02 May 2019)

Match won by Saurav Ghosal. Result: 11-5,11-8,11-3.

Starting level for Saurav Ghosal: 45,347, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ryunosuke Tsukue: 27,957, level confidence: 53%.
Saurav Ghosal to win as he is currently playing 62% better than Ryunosuke Tsukue.

Saurav Ghosal won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Saurav Ghosal played 106% better than Ryunosuke Tsukue in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Saurav Ghosal actually played at a level of 51,135 and Ryunosuke Tsukue at a level of 24,793. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.9% and 9.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal changes to +6.6% and Ryunosuke Tsukue changes to -9.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal becomes +1.8% and for Ryunosuke Tsukue becomes -2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Asian Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Saurav Ghosal: 90%, Ryunosuke Tsukue: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Saurav Ghosal: 80%, Ryunosuke Tsukue: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Saurav Ghosal: 45,948, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Ryunosuke Tsukue: 27,470, level confidence: 65%.