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Tesni Murphy v Cristina Gomez (Mon 29 Apr 2019)

Match won by Tesni Murphy. Result: 11-5,11-5,11-3.

Starting level for Tesni Murphy: 10,463, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Cristina Gomez: 5,643, level confidence: 67%.
Tesni Murphy to win as she is currently playing 85% better than Cristina Gomez.

Tesni Murphy won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tesni Murphy played 154% better than Cristina Gomez in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tesni Murphy actually played at a level of 12,242 and Cristina Gomez at a level of 4,823. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy changes to +12% and Cristina Gomez changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy becomes +3.6% and for Cristina Gomez becomes -4.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Cristina Gomez has already dropped 9.3% since starting this event at level 6165. The amount a player can drop in a single event is limited to 11.1% so Cristina Gomez's drop for this match has been limited to 2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tesni Murphy: 82%, Cristina Gomez: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tesni Murphy: 70%, Cristina Gomez: 70%.

A final adjustment of -1.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tesni Murphy: 10,604, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Cristina Gomez: 5,541, level confidence: 70%.