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Owain Taylor v D?Vid Boros (Mon 29 Apr 2019)

Match won by Owain Taylor. Result: 11-7,11-3,11-2.

Starting level for Owain Taylor: 22,007, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for D?Vid Boros: 5,871, level confidence: 30%.
Owain Taylor to win as he is currently playing 275% better than D?Vid Boros.

Owain Taylor won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Owain Taylor played 175% better than D?Vid Boros in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Owain Taylor was taking it easy by anything up to 32%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 10,156 and 22,007 without affecting his level.

In this case, Owain Taylor played at level 16,145 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, D?Vid Boros is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Owain Taylor: 87%, D?Vid Boros: 55%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Owain Taylor: 74%, D?Vid Boros: 47%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Owain Taylor: 21,974, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for D?Vid Boros: 5,862, level confidence: 47%.