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Lisa Aitken v Tesni Murphy (Sun 28 Apr 2019)

Match won by Tesni Murphy. Result: 4-11,9-11,5-11.

Starting level for Lisa Aitken: 8,318, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Tesni Murphy: 10,095, level confidence: 68%.
Tesni Murphy to win as she is currently playing 21% better than Lisa Aitken.

Tesni Murphy won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tesni Murphy played 83% better than Lisa Aitken in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tesni Murphy actually played at a level of 12,407 and Lisa Aitken at a level of 6,768. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy changes to +20% and Lisa Aitken changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy becomes +5.5% and for Lisa Aitken becomes -5.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Tesni Murphy is limited to +4.9% and Lisa Aitken is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tesni Murphy: 83%, Lisa Aitken: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tesni Murphy: 67%, Lisa Aitken: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lisa Aitken: 7,988, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Tesni Murphy: 10,452, level confidence: 67%.