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Sarah-Jane Perry v Tesni Murphy (Sun 28 Apr 2019)

Match won by Tesni Murphy. Result: 9-11,2-11,10-12.

Starting level for Sarah-Jane Perry: 9,504, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tesni Murphy: 9,652, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Tesni Murphy to win as she is currently playing 2% better than Sarah-Jane Perry.

Tesni Murphy won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 62% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tesni Murphy played 62% better than Sarah-Jane Perry in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tesni Murphy actually played at a level of 12,187 and Sarah-Jane Perry at a level of 7,527. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy changes to +26% and Sarah-Jane Perry changes to -24%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy becomes +6.8% and for Sarah-Jane Perry becomes -6.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Tesni Murphy is limited to +5% and Sarah-Jane Perry is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tesni Murphy: 86%, Sarah-Jane Perry: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tesni Murphy: 68%, Sarah-Jane Perry: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Sarah-Jane Perry: 9,045, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Tesni Murphy: 10,117, level confidence: 68%.