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Baptiste Masotti v Rudi Rohrmüller (Sun 28 Apr 2019)

Match won by Baptiste Masotti. Result: 11-3,11-2,6-11,3-11,11-6.

Starting level for Baptiste Masotti: 35,659, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Rudi Rohrmüller: 21,629, level confidence: 65%.
Baptiste Masotti to win as he is currently playing 65% better than Rudi Rohrmüller.

Baptiste Masotti won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Baptiste Masotti played 14% better than Rudi Rohrmüller in this match.

As Baptiste Masotti has played below his allowed range at 27,644, his level reduction is 12% before damping. On the assumption that Baptiste Masotti would normally have been playing at level 33,197 (based on typical behaviour), Rudi Rohrmüller played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.1% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti changes to -9.1% and Rudi Rohrmüller changes to +9.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti becomes -2.3% and for Rudi Rohrmüller becomes +2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Baptiste Masotti: 71%, Rudi Rohrmüller: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Baptiste Masotti: 59%, Rudi Rohrmüller: 67%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Baptiste Masotti: 34,818, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Rudi Rohrmüller: 22,224, level confidence: 67%.