Baptiste Masotti v Rory Stewart (Sun 28 Apr 2019)
Match won by Rory Stewart. Result: 14-12,11-4,9-11,6-11,6-11.
Starting level for
Baptiste Masotti:
36,078, level confidence: 46%.
Starting level for
Rory Stewart:
21,510, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Baptiste Masotti to win as he is currently playing
68% better than Rory Stewart.
Rory Stewart won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rory Stewart played
9% better than Baptiste Masotti in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rory Stewart actually played at a level of
29,101 and Baptiste Masotti at a level of
26,667. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 35% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rory Stewart changes to +17% and Baptiste Masotti changes to -26%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rory Stewart becomes +4.2% and for Baptiste Masotti becomes -5.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rory Stewart: 84%, Baptiste Masotti: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rory Stewart: 62%, Baptiste Masotti: 50%.
A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Baptiste Masotti:
35,166, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Rory Stewart:
22,383, level confidence: 62%.