Ryunosuke Tsukue v Mohd Farez Izwan (Tue 23 Apr 2019)
Match won by Ryunosuke Tsukue. Result: 11-5,11-2,11-4.
Starting level for
Ryunosuke Tsukue:
26,268, level confidence: 37%.
Starting level for
Mohd Farez Izwan:
10,350, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Ryunosuke Tsukue to win as he is currently playing
154% better than Mohd Farez Izwan.
Ryunosuke Tsukue won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ryunosuke Tsukue played
200% better than Mohd Farez Izwan in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ryunosuke Tsukue actually played at a level of
28,559 and Mohd Farez Izwan at a level of
9,520. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.7% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.4% and 5.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ryunosuke Tsukue changes to +5.4% and Mohd Farez Izwan changes to -2.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ryunosuke Tsukue becomes +1.7% and for Mohd Farez Izwan becomes -1.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Sram' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ryunosuke Tsukue: 61%, Mohd Farez Izwan: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ryunosuke Tsukue: 56%, Mohd Farez Izwan: 78%.
Final level for Ryunosuke Tsukue:
26,717, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Mohd Farez Izwan:
10,214, level confidence: 78%.