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Ali Farag v Diego Elias (Tue 23 Apr 2019)

Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 11-8,11-3,14-16,6-11,11-5.

Starting level for Ali Farag: 73,873, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Diego Elias: 58,976, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Diego Elias.

Ali Farag won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played 13% better than Diego Elias in this match.

As Ali Farag has played below his allowed range at 69,098, his level reduction is 3.4% before damping. On the assumption that Ali Farag would normally have been playing at level 72,649 (based on typical behaviour), Diego Elias played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3% and 3.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ali Farag changes to -3% and Diego Elias changes to +3.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ali Farag becomes -1% and for Diego Elias becomes +1.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA El Gouna International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 85%, Diego Elias: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 81%, Diego Elias: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ali Farag: 73,009, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Diego Elias: 59,733, level confidence: 84%.