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Nour El Sherbini v Yathreb Adel (Mon 22 Apr 2019)

Match won by Nour El Sherbini. Result: 11-6,11-9,11-4.

Starting level for Nour El Sherbini: 13,725, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Yathreb Adel: 8,391, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Nour El Sherbini to win as she is currently playing 64% better than Yathreb Adel.

Nour El Sherbini won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nour El Sherbini played 74% better than Yathreb Adel in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nour El Sherbini actually played at a level of 14,143 and Yathreb Adel at a level of 8,143. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.4% and 2.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nour El Sherbini changes to +2.4% and Yathreb Adel changes to -2.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nour El Sherbini becomes +1.1% and for Yathreb Adel becomes -1.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA El Gouna International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nour El Sherbini: 88%, Yathreb Adel: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nour El Sherbini: 86%, Yathreb Adel: 89%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nour El Sherbini: 13,688, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Yathreb Adel: 8,382, level confidence: 89%.