Tesni Murphy v Hollie Naughton (Mon 22 Apr 2019)
Match won by Tesni Murphy. Result: 11-9,11-8,6-11,9-11,11-2.
Starting level for
Tesni Murphy:
9,817, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for
Hollie Naughton:
7,726, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Tesni Murphy to win as she is currently playing
27% better than Hollie Naughton.
Tesni Murphy won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tesni Murphy played
12% better than Hollie Naughton in this match.
As Tesni Murphy has played below her allowed range at 9,034, her level reduction is 4.6% before damping. On the assumption that Tesni Murphy would normally have been playing at level 9,633 (based on typical behaviour), Hollie Naughton played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.6%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.1% and 5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy changes to -4.1% and Hollie Naughton changes to +4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy becomes -1.8% and for Hollie Naughton becomes +1.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA El Gouna International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tesni Murphy: 83%, Hollie Naughton: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tesni Murphy: 78%, Hollie Naughton: 87%.
A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tesni Murphy:
9,583, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Hollie Naughton:
7,862, level confidence: 87%.