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Steven Colarusso v Kyle Price (Thu 25 Apr 2019)

Match won by Steven Colarusso. Result: 11-4,11-7,11-5.

Starting level for Steven Colarusso: 5,853, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Kyle Price: 3,712, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Steven Colarusso to win as he is currently playing 58% better than Kyle Price.

Steven Colarusso won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steven Colarusso played 106% better than Kyle Price in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steven Colarusso actually played at a level of 6,694 and Kyle Price at a level of 3,246. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steven Colarusso changes to +9.6% and Kyle Price changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steven Colarusso becomes +3.5% and for Kyle Price becomes -4.5%.

Given Steven Colarusso's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.6% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2019' so the adjustment for Steven Colarusso is +2.5% and for Kyle Price is -3.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steven Colarusso: 92%, Kyle Price: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steven Colarusso: 80%, Kyle Price: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steven Colarusso: 5,992, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Kyle Price: 3,587, level confidence: 74%.