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Andrew Neal v Rhys Luffman (Thu 25 Apr 2019)

Match won by Andrew Neal. Result: 11-8,11-6,11-9.

Starting level for Andrew Neal: 7,797, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Rhys Luffman: 4,951, level confidence: 57%.
Andrew Neal to win as he is currently playing 57% better than Rhys Luffman.

Andrew Neal won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andrew Neal played 47% better than Rhys Luffman in this match.

In this case, Andrew Neal played at level 7,316 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Andrew Neal would normally have been playing at level 7,341 (based on typical behaviour), Rhys Luffman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andrew Neal changes to 0% and Rhys Luffman changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andrew Neal becomes 0% and for Rhys Luffman becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2019' so the adjustment for Andrew Neal is 0% and for Rhys Luffman is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andrew Neal: 78%, Rhys Luffman: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andrew Neal: 76%, Rhys Luffman: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andrew Neal: 7,785, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Rhys Luffman: 4,949, level confidence: 73%.