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Nicholas Johnson v Daniel Bergin (Thu 25 Apr 2019)

Match won by Nicholas Johnson. Result: 9-11,11-9,11-3,11-1.

Starting level for Nicholas Johnson: 5,584, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Daniel Bergin: 6,906, level confidence: 48%.
Daniel Bergin to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Nicholas Johnson.

Nicholas Johnson won 75% of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 75% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nicholas Johnson played 42% better than Daniel Bergin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nicholas Johnson actually played at a level of 7,387 and Daniel Bergin at a level of 5,220. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nicholas Johnson changes to +18% and Daniel Bergin changes to -29%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nicholas Johnson becomes +5.7% and for Daniel Bergin becomes -8%.

Given Nicholas Johnson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.5% has been applied to his level change.

Given Daniel Bergin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.5% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2019' so the adjustment for Nicholas Johnson is +4.2% and for Daniel Bergin is -5.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nicholas Johnson: 87%, Daniel Bergin: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nicholas Johnson: 66%, Daniel Bergin: 52%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nicholas Johnson: 5,810, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Daniel Bergin: 6,567, level confidence: 52%.