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Jethro D Binns v Alexis Cole (Thu 18 Apr 2019)

Match won by Jethro D Binns. Result: 11-8,11-7,6-11,11-8.

Starting level for Jethro D Binns: 9,005, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Alexis Cole: 8,534, level confidence: 68%.
Jethro D Binns to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Alexis Cole.

Jethro D Binns won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jethro D Binns played 22% better than Alexis Cole in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jethro D Binns actually played at a level of 9,667 and Alexis Cole at a level of 7,950. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jethro D Binns changes to +7.1% and Alexis Cole changes to -6.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jethro D Binns becomes +2.6% and for Alexis Cole becomes -2.5%.

Given Jethro D Binns's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change.

Given Alexis Cole's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2019' so the adjustment for Jethro D Binns is +1.7% and for Alexis Cole is -1.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jethro D Binns: 81%, Alexis Cole: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jethro D Binns: 75%, Alexis Cole: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jethro D Binns: 9,142, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Alexis Cole: 8,381, level confidence: 77%.