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Lowri Roberts v Daniel Bergin (Thu 18 Apr 2019)

Match won by Daniel Bergin. Result: 6-11,7-11,7-11.

Starting level for Lowri Roberts: 4,129, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Daniel Bergin: 6,964, level confidence: 25%.
Daniel Bergin to win as he is currently playing 69% better than Lowri Roberts.

Daniel Bergin won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daniel Bergin played 65% better than Lowri Roberts in this match.

In this case, Daniel Bergin played at level 6,813 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Lowri Roberts is considered to have not played better than expected and her level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daniel Bergin: 50%, Lowri Roberts: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daniel Bergin: 49%, Lowri Roberts: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lowri Roberts: 4,123, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Daniel Bergin: 6,954, level confidence: 49%.