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Daniel Bergin v Mike Dickens (Thu 11 Apr 2019)

Match won by Daniel Bergin. Result: 11-2,11-0,11-0.

Starting level for Daniel Bergin: 6,389, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mike Dickens: 7,023, level confidence: 58%.
Mike Dickens to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Daniel Bergin.

Daniel Bergin won all of the games and 94% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 1000% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daniel Bergin played 1000% better than Mike Dickens in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Daniel Bergin actually played at a level of 22,216 and Mike Dickens at a level of 2,020. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 248% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daniel Bergin changes to +168% and Mike Dickens changes to -228%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daniel Bergin becomes +32.4% and for Mike Dickens becomes -39%.

Given Daniel Bergin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.6% has been applied to his level change.

Given Mike Dickens's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.9% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2019' so the adjustment for Daniel Bergin is +23% and for Mike Dickens is -24%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Daniel Bergin is limited to +9.2% and Mike Dickens is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daniel Bergin: 89%, Mike Dickens: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daniel Bergin: 25%, Mike Dickens: 22%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daniel Bergin: 6,964, level confidence: 25%.
Final level for Mike Dickens: 6,679, level confidence: 22%.