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Mike Beecham v Liam Jones (Thu 04 Apr 2019)

Match won by Mike Beecham. Result: 11-2,11-3,11-7.

Starting level for Mike Beecham: 7,418, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Liam Jones: 5,528, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Mike Beecham to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Liam Jones.

Mike Beecham won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Beecham played 175% better than Liam Jones in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike Beecham actually played at a level of 10,619 and Liam Jones at a level of 3,862. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 43% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 36% and 36% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Beecham changes to +36% and Liam Jones changes to -29%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Beecham becomes +9.5% and for Liam Jones becomes -8.5%.

Given Mike Beecham's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.3% has been applied to his level change.

Given Liam Jones's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.2% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Mike Beecham is +6.5% and for Liam Jones is -6.1%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Liam Jones is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Beecham: 80%, Liam Jones: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Beecham: 56%, Liam Jones: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike Beecham: 7,890, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Liam Jones: 5,257, level confidence: 60%.