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Daniel Bergin v Simon Kilshaw (Thu 04 Apr 2019)

Match won by Daniel Bergin. Result: 11-7,11-7,11-7.

Starting level for Daniel Bergin: 6,292, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Simon Kilshaw: 4,371, level confidence: 52%.
Daniel Bergin to win as he is currently playing 44% better than Simon Kilshaw.

Daniel Bergin won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daniel Bergin played 56% better than Simon Kilshaw in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Daniel Bergin actually played at a level of 6,559 and Simon Kilshaw at a level of 4,193. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.2% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.5% and 3.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daniel Bergin changes to +2.6% and Simon Kilshaw changes to -3.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daniel Bergin becomes +1.4% and for Simon Kilshaw becomes -2%.

Given Daniel Bergin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.3% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2019' so the adjustment for Daniel Bergin is +1% and for Simon Kilshaw is -1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daniel Bergin: 84%, Simon Kilshaw: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daniel Bergin: 81%, Simon Kilshaw: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daniel Bergin: 6,347, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Simon Kilshaw: 4,300, level confidence: 69%.