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Isaac Rawcliffe v Jethro D Binns (Thu 04 Apr 2019)

Match won by Isaac Rawcliffe. Result: 11-9,11-3,11-9.

Starting level for Isaac Rawcliffe: 9,549, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Jethro D Binns: 9,549, level confidence: 55%.
Jethro D Binns to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Isaac Rawcliffe.

Isaac Rawcliffe won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Isaac Rawcliffe played 56% better than Jethro D Binns in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Isaac Rawcliffe actually played at a level of 11,943 and Jethro D Binns at a level of 7,635. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Isaac Rawcliffe changes to +24% and Jethro D Binns changes to -25%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Isaac Rawcliffe becomes +6.5% and for Jethro D Binns becomes -6.6%.

Given Isaac Rawcliffe's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.

Given Jethro D Binns's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2019' so the adjustment for Isaac Rawcliffe is +4.2% and for Jethro D Binns is -4.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Isaac Rawcliffe: 75%, Jethro D Binns: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Isaac Rawcliffe: 60%, Jethro D Binns: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Isaac Rawcliffe: 9,934, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Jethro D Binns: 9,151, level confidence: 60%.