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Mohamed Abouelghar v Ali Farag (Fri 29 Mar 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Abouelghar. Result: 11-9,5-11,11-7,11-9.

Starting level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 51,799, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ali Farag: 76,958, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Mohamed Abouelghar.

Mohamed Abouelghar won 75% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Abouelghar played 19% better than Ali Farag in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Abouelghar actually played at a level of 68,754 and Ali Farag at a level of 57,980. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 33% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Abouelghar changes to +26% and Ali Farag changes to -24%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Abouelghar becomes +4.9% and for Ali Farag becomes -4.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Grasshopper Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Abouelghar: 86%, Ali Farag: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Abouelghar: 65%, Ali Farag: 67%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 54,357, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Ali Farag: 73,937, level confidence: 67%.