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Olivia Weaver v Tesni Murphy (Thu 28 Mar 2019)

Match won by Olivia Weaver. Result: 12-10,12-10,8-11,11-6.

Starting level for Olivia Weaver: 7,317, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tesni Murphy: 10,403, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Tesni Murphy to win as she is currently playing 42% better than Olivia Weaver.

Olivia Weaver won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Olivia Weaver played 22% better than Tesni Murphy in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Olivia Weaver actually played at a level of 9,641 and Tesni Murphy at a level of 7,896. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Olivia Weaver changes to +26% and Tesni Murphy changes to -22%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Olivia Weaver becomes +7.2% and for Tesni Murphy becomes -5.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Texas Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Olivia Weaver is limited to +5.4% and Tesni Murphy is limited to -4.9% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Olivia Weaver: 84%, Tesni Murphy: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Olivia Weaver: 64%, Tesni Murphy: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Olivia Weaver: 7,704, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Tesni Murphy: 10,121, level confidence: 69%.