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Ross Cassley v Daniel Bergin (Thu 28 Mar 2019)

Match won by Ross Cassley. Result: 14-12,6-11,11-1,13-11.

Starting level for Ross Cassley: 5,494, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Daniel Bergin: 6,473, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Daniel Bergin to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Ross Cassley.

Ross Cassley won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ross Cassley played 25% better than Daniel Bergin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ross Cassley actually played at a level of 6,674 and Daniel Bergin at a level of 5,329. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ross Cassley changes to +20% and Daniel Bergin changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ross Cassley becomes +6.2% and for Daniel Bergin becomes -4.7%.

Given Ross Cassley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.1% has been applied to his level change.

Given Daniel Bergin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.9% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2019' so the adjustment for Ross Cassley is +4.5% and for Daniel Bergin is -3.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ross Cassley: 78%, Daniel Bergin: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ross Cassley: 64%, Daniel Bergin: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ross Cassley: 5,735, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Daniel Bergin: 6,334, level confidence: 73%.