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Jethro D Binns v Frazer Richards (Thu 28 Mar 2019)

Match won by Jethro D Binns. Result: 11-2,11-2,11-5.

Starting level for Jethro D Binns: 9,104, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Frazer Richards: 5,524, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Jethro D Binns to win as he is currently playing 65% better than Frazer Richards.

Jethro D Binns won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jethro D Binns played 267% better than Frazer Richards in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jethro D Binns actually played at a level of 13,579 and Frazer Richards at a level of 3,703. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 49% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 37% and 37% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jethro D Binns changes to +37% and Frazer Richards changes to -36%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jethro D Binns becomes +9.1% and for Frazer Richards becomes -10.3%.

Given Jethro D Binns's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change.

Given Frazer Richards's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.2% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2019' so the adjustment for Jethro D Binns is +6% and for Frazer Richards is -7.3%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Frazer Richards is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jethro D Binns: 85%, Frazer Richards: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jethro D Binns: 57%, Frazer Richards: 57%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jethro D Binns: 9,632, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Frazer Richards: 5,253, level confidence: 57%.