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Baptiste Masotti v Carlos Cornes (Sat 23 Mar 2019)

Match won by Baptiste Masotti. Result: 11-6,9-11,11-9,11-3.

Starting level for Baptiste Masotti: 37,544, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Carlos Cornes: 25,751, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Baptiste Masotti to win as he is currently playing 46% better than Carlos Cornes.

Baptiste Masotti won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Baptiste Masotti played 32% better than Carlos Cornes in this match.

As Baptiste Masotti has played below his allowed range at 34,142, his level reduction is 0.8% before damping. On the assumption that Baptiste Masotti would normally have been playing at level 35,944 (based on typical behaviour), Carlos Cornes played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.7% and 2.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti changes to -0.6% and Carlos Cornes changes to +2.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti becomes -0.2% and for Carlos Cornes becomes +1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tennis Racquet Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Baptiste Masotti: 87%, Carlos Cornes: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Baptiste Masotti: 82%, Carlos Cornes: 81%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Baptiste Masotti: 37,311, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Carlos Cornes: 26,169, level confidence: 81%.