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Daniel Bergin v Andrew Neal (Thu 21 Mar 2019)

Match won by Daniel Bergin. Result: 7-11,11-9,14-12,8-11,11-4.

Starting level for Daniel Bergin: 6,278, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Andrew Neal: 7,162, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Andrew Neal to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Daniel Bergin.

Daniel Bergin won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daniel Bergin played 10% better than Andrew Neal in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Daniel Bergin actually played at a level of 7,021 and Andrew Neal at a level of 6,404. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daniel Bergin changes to +10.1% and Andrew Neal changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daniel Bergin becomes +3.6% and for Andrew Neal becomes -3.7%.

Given Daniel Bergin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.2% has been applied to his level change.

Given Andrew Neal's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.4% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2019' so the adjustment for Daniel Bergin is +2.5% and for Andrew Neal is -2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daniel Bergin: 91%, Andrew Neal: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daniel Bergin: 81%, Andrew Neal: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daniel Bergin: 6,428, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Andrew Neal: 6,974, level confidence: 78%.