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Nour El Sherbini v Joelle King (Thu 14 Mar 2019)

Match won by Nour El Sherbini. Result: 11-7,11-4,12-10.

Starting level for Nour El Sherbini: 13,890, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joelle King: 10,657, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Nour El Sherbini to win as she is currently playing 30% better than Joelle King.

Nour El Sherbini won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 62% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nour El Sherbini played 62% better than Joelle King in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nour El Sherbini actually played at a level of 15,481 and Joelle King at a level of 9,562. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10% and 10% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nour El Sherbini changes to +9.4% and Joelle King changes to -10%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nour El Sherbini becomes +2.8% and for Joelle King becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Black Ball Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nour El Sherbini: 93%, Joelle King: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nour El Sherbini: 83%, Joelle King: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nour El Sherbini: 14,089, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Joelle King: 10,447, level confidence: 81%.