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Lewys Hurst v Daniel Bergin (Thu 14 Mar 2019)

Match won by Lewys Hurst. Result: 11-6,11-9,11-7.

Starting level for Lewys Hurst: 10,982, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Daniel Bergin: 6,287, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Lewys Hurst to win as he is currently playing 75% better than Daniel Bergin.

Lewys Hurst won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewys Hurst played 52% better than Daniel Bergin in this match.

In this case, Lewys Hurst played at level 9,796 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Lewys Hurst would normally have been playing at level 10,065 (based on typical behaviour), Daniel Bergin played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewys Hurst changes to 0% and Daniel Bergin changes to +1.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewys Hurst becomes 0% and for Daniel Bergin becomes +1%.

Given Daniel Bergin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.2% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2019' so the adjustment for Lewys Hurst is 0% and for Daniel Bergin is +0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewys Hurst: 85%, Daniel Bergin: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewys Hurst: 79%, Daniel Bergin: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lewys Hurst: 10,966, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Daniel Bergin: 6,322, level confidence: 85%.