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Daniel Bergin v Richard Murphy (Thu 07 Mar 2019)

Match won by Daniel Bergin. Result: 11-8,11-8,10-12,11-6.

Starting level for Daniel Bergin: 6,175, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Richard Murphy: 5,342, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Daniel Bergin to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Richard Murphy.

Daniel Bergin won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daniel Bergin played 25% better than Richard Murphy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Daniel Bergin actually played at a level of 6,434 and Richard Murphy at a level of 5,127. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daniel Bergin changes to +3.5% and Richard Murphy changes to -3.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daniel Bergin becomes +1.8% and for Richard Murphy becomes -2%.

Given Daniel Bergin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.8% has been applied to his level change.

Given Richard Murphy's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.5% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2019' so the adjustment for Daniel Bergin is +1.3% and for Richard Murphy is -1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daniel Bergin: 90%, Richard Murphy: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daniel Bergin: 86%, Richard Murphy: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daniel Bergin: 6,246, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Richard Murphy: 5,256, level confidence: 82%.